第七届青年地学论坛

The projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely, the precipitation change rate per
kelvin of global warming, shows substantial intermodel spread among 40 Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer
monsoon is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon. The intermodel
spread of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon hydrological sensitivity is mainly attributed to the
projected interhemispheric temperature gradients and the associated low‐level cross‐equatorial flows.
The intermodel spread of the Afro‐Asia summer monsoon sensitivity is rooted in the projected
continent‐ocean thermal gradients, while the spread of the North American monsoon sensitivity is related to
the projected sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. These findings
suggest that further constraining monsoon hydrological sensitivity requires a better projection of the
warming rate between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between the land and ocean, and the
sea surface warming pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic.
 

climate model,monsoon precipitation